do your numbers add up? Divorce predictors claim 94% accuracy
Ahhh, geek love. Someone has finally quantified the factors that lead to divorce or happiness, and they’ve turned it into… a mathematical formula. Apparently, marriage is all about communication, or lack thereof. Couples who can navigate difficult times with a sense of humor will weather the storm; we needed an equation to tell us this? Actually, it’s pretty interesting. “Psychologist John Gottman and applied mathematicians James D. Murray and Kristin Swanson will describe how the model was developed and how it enables Gottman to predict with 94 percent accuracy which couples will divorce after viewing just the first few moments of a conversation about an area of martial contention.” Well, considering the fact that my ex and I couldn’t talk to each other at all, and spent our date nights seated silently next to each other in countless crappy movies, I’m not surprised by this team’s findings. So, something else to put down on my list of ‘must haves’: a man with a sense of humor.
Tags: calculation, divorce, formula, math, mathematical-model-accurately-predicts-which-couples-wi, single-mom, single-motherRelated Stories
POSTED IN: divorce
13 opinions for do your numbers add up? Divorce predictors claim 94% accuracy
Kristen King
Feb 27, 2007 at 8:31 pm
I read a statistic recently that 50% of of marriages end in divorce now, so I have to wonder how difficult it would be to make this kind of prediction… That’s so sad!
kk
Kate
Feb 28, 2007 at 9:11 am
Thank God the stigma against divorce is falling away! Imagine having to live in hostile silence with someone until you’re both in your 80s!
That would make the insane asylum the only other alternative to an unhappy marriage.
Christina
Feb 28, 2007 at 9:16 am
Kate, can you imagine? I did it for almost three years. I couldn’t imagine being condemned to it for the rest of my life!
Christina
Feb 28, 2007 at 9:17 am
Kristen, I wonder… I can’t remember hearing of a recent breakup that caught me by surprise…
Kristen King
Feb 28, 2007 at 12:04 pm
Kate, I think part of the reason divorce rates are so high is that divorce is less stigmatized — not because people in bad marriages aren’t afraid of societal repurcussions anymore, but because people are going into marriage now thinking, “Well, if it doesn’t work out, we’ll just get a divorce. No biggie.” What are your thoughts on that, all?
Christina
Feb 28, 2007 at 12:14 pm
I think it’s a combination of the two. Marriage seems more … casual than it used to be. But I went into my marriage with an attitude of ’til death do us part’ and was determined to slog through it. It wasn’t until even my own mother, who is a staunch believer in sticking it out in a marriage, told me I shouldn’t have to live the way I did, and shouldn’t have to tolerate being treated that way, that it occurred to me that my marriage was horrible and could be ended. Even then, it took months, and I offered my ex EVERY alternative to divorce, including a marriage blanc.
The best proof that separation and divorce was the right choice for our family is in the behavior, health, and happiness of our son, who has flourished and thrived since we moved back home and started a new life.
Kristen King
Feb 28, 2007 at 12:35 pm
I feel stupid even asking, but what is a marriage blanc?
Michael
Feb 28, 2007 at 5:19 pm
It makes me curious about how Gottman would have assessed my marriage to Marie.
Although, I do remember our worst disagreement - in NYC at Penn Station. The kids were small, tired and dirty, the train to New England was late and we exchanged the “f” word several times.
I walked out onto the streets around Madison Square determined to “get away”. I was such a foolish little boy.
christina
Feb 28, 2007 at 8:07 pm
Kristen, a marriage blanc is a marriage of convenience, a paper marriage. We would stay together for the sake of the child, but lead very separate lives, take lovers, etc. so long as the child didn’t know.
christina
Feb 28, 2007 at 8:08 pm
:) Michael… well, you guys had plenty of humor, too. We’re all allowed a snit or two. It’s the basic coping mechanism that they’re looking at, not a single instance where one of you blew a gasket!
Kristen King
Feb 28, 2007 at 9:35 pm
Got it. That doesn’t sound particularly pleasant. :/
kk
Kate
Mar 6, 2007 at 3:29 pm
I don’t know if I agree marriage is more casual. I think, if anything, women don’t rush into it feeling that they wait for the right man to come along until they get older, panic and marry the next man to come around.
I think a lot of military couples may rush into it for fear of leaving no one behind if they are to be killed in battle, but there are probably centuries of statisitics to back that up.
When I look at my friends families who belong to other communities, where arranged marriages are the norm and divorce is still heavily stigmatized, I don’t see any more long and happy marriages than I see in my own community. I see couples who stop speaking to each other for years, who are often hostile to each other or who just lead completely separate lives.
I am not sure that the rising divorce rate is a bad thing. I think it’s a positive sign that women don’t need to stay put and accept physical or emotional abuse in exchange for her keep. It also means that men don’t have to abandon their entire family to escape a hellish relationship.
christina
Mar 6, 2007 at 10:46 pm
Kate, you bring up some very insightful points, as always. I know the decision to split was an agonizing one, and not one that was made on the spur of the moment. I hope that divorce becomes less of an option, but I’m not sure how it can. We marry for one set of reasons, but sometimes, the person we marry might be a good spouse, until children come along. the dynamic of kids, parenting, that whole new life, is difficult under the best of circumstances. The strain is more than some imperfect marriages can bear.
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